Predicting Long-Term Performance of Photovoltaic Arrays Using Short-Term Test Data and an Annual Simulation Tool: Preprint (Revised)

摘要

We present a method of analysis for predicting annual performance of an in-situ photovoltaic (PV) array using short-term test data and an annual simulation tool. The method involves fitting data from a family of I-V curves (depicting current versus voltage) taken from a short-term test (1 to 3 day) of a PV array to a set of polynomial functions. These functions are used to predict the array's behaviour under a wide range of temperatures and irradiances. TRNSYS, driven by TMY2 weather data, is used to simulate the array's behaviour under typical weather conditions. We demonstrate this method by using results from a nominal 630-W array.