Wildfire Behavior Modeling System at Los Alamos National Laboratory for Operational Applications

摘要

To support efforts to protect facilities and property at Los Alamos National Laboratory from damages caused by wildfire, we completed a multiyear project to develop a system for modeling the behavior of wildfires in the Los Alamos region. This was accomplished by parameterizing the FARSITE wildfire behavior model with locally gathered data representing topography, fuels, and weather conditions from throughout the Los Alamos region. Detailed parameterization was made possible by an extensive monitoring network of permanent plots, weather towers, and other data collection facilities. We also incorporated a database of lightning strikes that can be used individually as repeatable ignition points or can be used as a group in Monte Carlo simulation exercises and in other randomization procedures. The assembled modeling system was subjected to sensitivity analyses and was validated against documented fires, including the Cerro Grande Fire. The resulting modeling system is a valuable tool for research and management. It also complements knowledge based on professional expertise and information gathered from other modeling technologies. However, the modeling system requires frequent updates of the input data layers to produce currently valid results, to adapt to changes in environmental conditions within the Los Alamos region, and to allow for the quick production of model outputs during emergency operations.