Bioagent Sample Matching Using Elemental Composition Data: an Approach to Validation

摘要

Sample matching is a fundamental capability that can have high probative value in a forensic context if proper validation studies are performed. In this report we discuss the potential utility of using the elemental composition of two bioagent samples to decide if they were produced in the same batch, or by the same process. Using guidance from the recent NRC study of bullet lead analysis and other sources, we develop a basic likelihood ratio framework for evaluating the evidentiary weight of elemental analysis data for sample matching. We define an objective metric for comparing two samples, and propose a method for constructing an unbiased population of test samples. We illustrate the basic methodology with some existing data on dry Bacillus thuringiensis preparations, and outline a comprehensive plan for experimental validation of this approach.