PROJECTING COUNTY-LEVEL RETAIL-SERVICE RECEIPTS IN A REGION WITH EXPORT-BASE RECREATION:THE KNOXVILLE ECONOMIC REGION (BEA 50)

摘要

The forecast of retail-service sales activity at regional and subregional levels is complicated by two factors:the presence of export activity and the central place variations (e.g., market size) of trading centers. This paper presents a framework for allocating portions of a county's retail-service activity to local, regional, and export components and projecting the same out in time. The primary units of observation are BEA areas and component counties. The techniques employed are average requirements applied to homogeneous county groups and regression analysis applied to a heterogeneous sample. Their usefulness and limits are demonstrated in an analysis of retail service activity in BEA 50. A BEA is a functional economic area defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.