Canada's Oil and Gas Resources: Appendix B to Canada's Resources and the National Interest

摘要

A brief review of the past expenditures and results of the petroleum industry was made. Today's established reserves were compared with the undiscovered potential. The past experience in the western Canada sedimentary basin was developed into a model from which expenditure/discovery projections could be made. This model accommodated the significant different costs and lead times in frontier areas. The model was also extrapolated to predict future finding costs in the established areas. Following a preliminary model run, it was seen that very sizable increases in exploration and development expenditures would be necessary in order to approach domestic net self-sufficiency in combined oil and gas. Exploration and development expenditures were thus applied at a rate of increase consistent with maximum efficient ability of the domestic industry to expand under the constraints of equipment, manpower, and capital. The new reserves of oil and gas that were found likely to be discovered were developed upon reaching pre-determined thresholds in several areas. The direct finding and developing costs were calculated on an area-by-area basis, and for Canada as a whole. Indirect costs of employment of capital were also calculated. The resulting producibility of oil and gas were shown in a time frame and in relationship to forecast domestic consumption. This report describes the results from this model application. Details of the methodology, assumptions, and calculations are being assembled into a separate background document. (ERA citation 02:060019)