AN APPLICATION OF THE DELPHI METHOD TO REGIONAL LAND-USE FORECASTING

摘要

An abbreviated (two-round) Delphi approach was used as an adjunct to a computer simulation model in forecasting regional industrial land use. Panels of manufacturing executives in the study area ranked industrial location factors and made spatial forecasts of future growth centers. Panel estimates and forecasts were used to compose land use attractiveness scores in the simulation model and as a source of general knowledge about the study area. Concepts and problems thought to be important in future applications of the Delphi method to land-use forecasting are discussed.