Analysis of the Incremental Cost and Trade-Offs Between Energy Efficiency and Physical Distribution Effectiveness in Intercity Freight Markets

摘要

This report describes a study of the effects of changes in national transportation policy on the traffic allocation and the energy consumption of various modes of intercity freight transportation. The study focuses on the linkages between freight transportation and industry structure. Starting from the viewpoint of the individual firm, the process of ordering and shipping supplies was analyzed in detail. Models were developed to predict the level of service associated with the transport alternatives available to a firm, and to predict the total logistics cost of each of these alternatives. These models make it possible to forecast the demand for various modal services at the disaggregate level. In order to predict total aggregate demand, a method was developed for sampling from the population of firms, and summing the demands. Using these models and methods, it is possible to make detailed forecasts of commodity flows under alternative policy options. The policy options selected for analysis include substantial rehabilitation of railroad yards and facilities, improving TOFC/COFC performance with shuttle trains, allowing unrestricted use of double trailers on the Interstate Highway System, increasing truck user charges, imposing waterway user charges, and an increase in fuel costs. The policies were investigated with a computerized model system which simulated freight flows between four pairs of major metropolitan area. Before the model could be applied, each policy had to be analyzed with regard to its effect on the key level of service determinants: waiting and travel time distributions, loss and damage, and tariff rates. The model system has been used to predict the impact of these level of service changes on the shipping patterns of a sample of individual firms. These results have been summed and expanded to produce aggregate forecasts of modal shares and energy consumption. (ERA citation 03:018476)