System for Projecting the Utilization of Renewable Resources. SPURR Methodology

摘要

A System for Projecting the Utilization of Renewable Resources (SPURR) was developed. SPURR consists of a computer simulation model and an energy data base containing engineering cost data on solar and conventional technologies in four market sectors--heating and cooling of buildings, process heat, electric utility, and production of synthetic fuels and products--as well as data defining likely future scenarios. The SPURR computer model, described here, simulates on a year by year basis the market decisions to purchase solar (or other new energy options) and conventional technologies in each of the four market sectors in each region of the U.S. to satisfy a given energy demand. The simulation accounts for regional differences in climate, fuel costs and energy demand; cost reductions on new technologies based on projected experience; and certain interactions among the market sectors. Market decision algorithms for use in SPURR were developed that incorporate probability of least cost; technological substitution limited by an S-shaped curve; market shares based on the relative value of competing technologies as well as the perceived risk of the new technology; and a ''boom or bust'' phenomenon in which a new technology captures a small share of the market even though its relative value is less than that of the competitor. The energy data base, the scenarios and their results, and METREK conclusions and recommendations are reported in separate documents described in Appendix I. (ERA citation 03:044348)