Empirical Investigation of the Factors Affecting Socioeconomic Impacts from Energy Development

摘要

Many studies have been conducted to predict the socioeconomic effects associated with site-specific coal development projects at specific sites. Most socioeconomic studies have forecast the impacts on employment and population of a specific energy technology at a particular site. Such forecasts have become important components of the environmental impact analyses of site-specific operations in coal extraction and conversion. These studies provide government, industry, and interest groups with important information about the expected social and economic changes at a particular site. However, such studies are of little value in evaluating and comparing alternative sites or of use in determining regional patterns of development. To assist officials in both the public and private sectors in evaluation of how facilities are sited in a region, and methods of coal utilization that will minimize social and economic impacts, a more general analysis is required. This paper, an initial attempt at such an analysis, is intended as a basis for discussion so that subsequent analysis can more thoroughly address the issues. By using an approach developed at Argonne for its Regional Studies Program, the socioeconomic consequences of alternative rates and types of coal development in a variety of potentially exploitable counties are projected. The results of these miniature case studies are then used to evaluate the sensitivity of the projected impacts to site- and technology-specific factors. By contrasting the socioeconomic consequences of identical coal technologies in counties differing markedly in economic, geographic, and demographic characteristics, the influences of these characteristics on the rate and magnitude of such impacts are described. Also, the influence of different rates and types of coal development are evaluated by comparing their expected socioeconomic consequences in nearly identical counties. (ERA citation 04:000124)