Constraints on the Commercialization of Oil Shale

摘要

The problems and prospects for the commercialization of oil shale from surface retorting are examined. Commercialization refers to the process of private sector adoption of a technology for general use after most of the technological uncertainties have been resolved. Three categories of constraints and uncertainties can be identified: technical constraints relating to the performance characteristics of the technology; economic constraints on the ability of the technology to yield an acceptable rate of return to investors; and institutional constraints that arise from the organizational and political context in which commercialization takes place. Because surface retorting involves relatively well understood technologies, this study deals almost exclusively with economic and institutional constraints. At the present time, a government commercialization effort for oil shale surface retorting would not be likely to result in a viable industry in this century. Alternative oil shale technologies such as modified in situ processes offer prospects of lower shale oil costs, but are less well developed. Data on modified in situ processes are not abundant enough as yet to permit serious estimates of commercial-scale costs. Consequently, government decisions regarding the commercialization of modified in situ technologies should await the completion of further technical tests and an independent definitive plant design. (ERA citation 04:021597)