Economic Analysis of a Candidate 50 Cents/Wpk Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Manufacturing Technology. Low-Cost Solar Array Project 5101-94

摘要

The SAMICS methodology was used to analyze the first candidate manufacturing sequence that could meet the LSA Projects's 1986 price goal. That goal represents a reduction in photovoltaic prices by a factor of a hundred over a 10-year period, from approximately 50 $/Wpk in 1975 to 50 cents/Wpk in 1986. The results of analysis which has occurred since the original presentation of the 5 cents/Wpk candidate factory at the 10th LSA Project Integration Meeting are described. Briefly, if a number of events occur, such as a high cell efficiency (14% for this technology), vertical industry integration, long periods of amortizing the initial capital investment, and full utilization of a large plant, then a price of 39.9 cents/Wpk is possible. Non-optimal circumstances will increase this required price, and several of these circumstances are addressed. (ERA citation 04:025878)