1980 Motor Gasoline Supply and Demand. Analysis Menorandum AM/ES/79-12

摘要

For 1980 motor gasoline consumption is projected to range from 7.58 to 7.96 MMB/D depending on the level of economic activity and the extent of improvement in the fuel efficiency of the automoile fleet. Depending on the state of the economy, low levels of conservation indicate a range of 1980 consumption levels which vary from 7.88 to 7.96 MMB/D. With high conservation the levels are from 7.58 to 7.66 MMB/D. With 1980 consumption of motor gasoline at these projected levels, the refining industry will have to take certain actions to increase supplies, particularly to offset the effects of the sharp phasedown of octane-increasing lead additives. The industry will be required to reduce the lead level to about 0.5 grams per gallon by October, putting pressure on downstream refinery units which make high octane clear pool gasoline. The estimated effect of this phasedown is a reduction of possible gasoline output by about 500 thousand barrels per day in 1980. The refining industry may increase gasoline supplies by increasing capacity utilization rates of downstream units to levels that are higher than the normal industry practice, using manganese additives in leaded grades as permitted by the EPA, and somewhat reducing the octane rating of some or all of the gasoline grades they produce. (ERA citation 04:025445)