Why Should Energy Models Form a Crucial Policy Input in an Uncertain Political World.

摘要

Models have been and are being used by the U.S. Department of Energy to provide inputs into the decision process. The question is often asked as to the accuracy of their forecasts and the methods used for validation. It is asserted that energy models can not be predictive,and that validation based on experience with models of physical systems is inappropriate. Asking the question as to the accuracy or validity of an energy system model is not useful. The usefulness of energy models for policy analysis or technology assessment lies in the comparative results generated for alternative scenarios,initiatives,and actions. (ERA citation 04:044880)