New Developments Affecting the Supply of Oil to the Free World.

摘要

The objective of this report is to update an earlier assessment of future world oil supply and demand. Recent exploration in Mexico and the North Sea indicates that these areas will contribute more to world supplies than anticipated;in the U.S.,delayed leasing schedules and unsuccessful exploration in many areas on the Outer Continental Shelf suggest a production potential below previous expectations;the fact that more and more OPEC nations are setting arbitrary production limits will also affect the future oil supply adversely;and early estimates of future Russian and Chinese exports seem now to have been overly optimistic. In view of these and other new developments that affect worldwide demand for oil,world demand will probably exceed the supply by about 7million bbl/day in 1990. Seasonal demands and growing markets for specific types of crude oil will create local shortages before that time. Thus,increasing prices and increasing competition for available supplies seem inevitable until syncrudes and other exotic energy sources become available in quantity. (ERA citation 03:033250)