Cash Flow Analysis of Alternative Approaches to Commercialization of Coal Conversion Technologies.

摘要

The economics of four alternative approaches to commercialization of coal conversion technologies are analyzed. Cash flows and internal rates of return are calculated for four assumed projects: (1) demonstration plant followed by commercial plant; (2) pioneer plant followed by commercial plant; (3) continued R and D followed by commercial plant; (4) commercial plant now. The sensitivities of the economic results to variations in the base case assumptions are tested to determine if changes occur in the relative desirability of the alternatives under different assumed conditions. The analysis shows that the economics for the four alternatives are close;consideration of risk and other nonfinancial issues will therefore be of major importance in deciding among the alternatives. (ERA citation 03:021726)