Statistical Analysis of Data from Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leases. Progress Report

摘要

Since 1954 tracts on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) have been leased by the Federal Government to oil and gas companies for development. At the Second ERDA Statistical Symposium, Oak Ridge, Tennessee in October 1976, some problems related to the statistical analysis of the bidding and production data were discussed. Progress relating to two problem areas discussed then is reported in studies of the probability distribution of the bids for an individual lease, and prediction of discovery of hydrocarbons from sale data. It is concluded that the number of bids on a lease is too small to distinguish among possible underlying probability distributions. Concerning prediction of hydrocarbon discovery, it appears that for most sales about 70% correct classification is obtained when the sale data is used as the training set. When the derived discriminant function is applied to another sale, the prediction is poor. (ERA citation 04:021325)