Parametric Analysis of the Electric Utility Market for Advanced Load-Leveling Batteries. Final Report

摘要

This task examines the market for batteries in utility load-leveling service as a function of the Battery System Cost characteristics in order to give DOE a method of assessing the results of various program alternatives. The sensitivity of the benefits (barrels of oil saved) that might be derived to the timing of the market (i.e. when it begins) is also investigated. (The real cost of fuel is to be assumed to increase 2.4% per year.) How large is the total market for a new technology; how is the relative effectiveness of Battery Storage Systems related to the cost of fuel, the capital cost of the battery, and the perception of the credits associated with batery systems; and how do these vary with time required answers in order to estimate how the market for battery systems might develop. Most of the answers were obtained by studying the data developed by MITRE/METREK for a market assessment of battery systems using lead/acid batteries. MITRE's market analysis considered a large variety of variables; since the resources and time available for the present task were limited, it was not possible to either duplicate or confirm their work in detail. The initial results of this study depend on the assumptions used by MITRE. However, where these assumptions were incomplete, the results are adjusted. The supplementary information was obtained from studies performed by Arthur D. Little, Inc. and by PSE and G. (ERA citation 04:033618)