What Role Can Simulation Model Predictions Play in Environmental Decisions: Carbon Dioxide as an Example

摘要

Frequently, when an environmental issue requiring quantitative analysis surfaces, the development of a model synthesizing all aspects of the problem and applicable at each stage of the decision process is proposed. A more desirable alternative is to generate models specifically designed to meet the requirements of each level in decision making and which can be adapted in response to the changing status of the environmental issue. Various models of the global carbon cycle constructed to predict levels of CO sub 2 in the atmosphere as a result of man's activities are described to illustrate this point. In summary, the progression of models developed to analyze the global carbon cycle in resolving the CO sub 2 /climate issue indicates the changing character of models depending on the immediate role they play in environmental decision making. The dominant and successful role served by models in the carbon cycle problem points to the desirability of this flexible approach. (ERA citation 04:045317)