Sensitivity Analysis of Project Appraisal Variables. Volume II. Additional Variables and Composite Scenarios

摘要

This report is the second of a two-volume documentation of sensitivity analysis of project appraisal variables. The variables analyzed consist of various direct and indirect inputs to the project appraisal methodology (PAM) used by the Division of Fossil Fuel Utilization within the US Department of Energy (DOE) for annual assessment of its research and development projects. In 1979, sixteen division projects were assessed using PAM. Nine input variables were selected for analysis following the 1979 application of the methodology. Six of these inputs were considered to be key variables and are analyzed in Volume I of this report. The remaining inputs were termed additional variables and are reported on in this second volume. The additional variables are: market potential/rate of growth; market score rates; and energy benefits weights and types. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that changes in additional variables do not effect major changes with the exception of the no growth market potential scenario. The results of this study indicate that the PAM is relatively insensitive to small changes in input values. This confirms the validity fo PAMs structure. (ERA citation 06:033405)