Market Penetration of New Energy Systems Estimated by Econometric and Stochastic Methodology

摘要

A methodology was developed to evaluate the market potential of new energy technologies and systems in today's fast changing US economic and energy environment. An econometric and stochastic model approach is used to analyze the technical, economic, and market factors influencing the possible market penetration of new energy systems. The market model methodology includes four phases: Phase I - Segment the new technology/end-use market; Phase II - Estimate the technical market; Phase III - Estimate the economic market; and Phase IV - Estimate the market penetration. The market penetration of new Integrated Community Energy Systems (ICES) was estimated by this methodology. To illustrate the methodology, highlights of the ICES application are included in this paper. (ERA citation 05:001149)