Impact of Petroleum Industry Horizontal Divestiture on the Coal Market

摘要

The US Congress has set forth proposals which would prohibit oil companies from acquiring coal companies or other non-petroleum energy resources. Some proposals would require oil companies to divest themselves of any such resources that they already hold. The first legislation was introduced on this topic in the 94th Congress and alternative proposals are under serious consideration at the current time. We have analyzed some major variants of these legislative propsals with a study of likely economic behavior in the coal market as a result of horizontal divestiture. After a thorough study of the theoretical and empirical aspects of ownership-related behavior, two dichotomous sets of assumptions are possible. One set of assumptions is oriented towards synergism and growth maximization. The interpretation of these assumptions in the model is one of a lower rate of return for oil owned coal assets relative to non-oil owned assets. The second set of assumptions could broadly be termed monopoly assumptions. The depiction of these within the model framework is one of higher rates of return for oil owned coal relative to non-oil owned. These results are based on economic theory, engineering and econometric models, and analysis; all set in the general framework of comparative statics. Comparative statics is an analytical tool which permits investigation of a situation before and after government intervention. The models used include the National Coal Model and the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) model. These models are well-grounded in economic theory and characterize the coal and energy markets well for analysis purposes. Assumptions and qualifications are detailed. (ERA citation 05:005342)