Seismic Safety Margins Research Program. Phase I. Project VII: Systems Analysis Specifications of Computational Approach

摘要

A computational methodology is presented for the prediction of core melt probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events. The proposed model has four modules: seismic hazard, structural dynamic (including soil-structure interaction), component failure and core melt sequence. The proposed modules would operate in series and would not have to be operated at the same time. The basic statistical approach uses a Monte Carlo simulation to treat random and systematic error but alternate statistical approaches are permitted by the program design. (ERA citation 04:043032)