Energy Material Transport, Now Through 2000, System Characteristics and Potential Problems. Task 3. Final Report - Petroleum Transportation

摘要

This report contains a summary characterization of the petroleum transportation system and an assessment of some potential problems that may impact petroleum transportation in the United States during the balance of the century. A primary purpose of this task is to provide information and perspective that contribute to the evaluation of research and development needs and priorities in future programs. The system characterization in Section 3 includes a review of petroleum product movements, modal operations and comparisons, and transportation regulations and safety. This system overview summarizes domestic production and consumption scenarios to the year 2000. A median scenario based on published projections shows that the US will probably rely on foreign oil to supply between 40 and 50 percent of domestic petroleum needs throughout the balance of the century. Potential problems in petroleum transportation were identified by the analysis and prioritization of current issues. The relative priorities of problem concerns were judged on the basis of their overall impact on the system and the immediacy of this potential impact. Two classes of concern are distinguished: 1. Potential problems that appear to require new programmatic action, in addition to effort already committed, to minimize the possible future impact of these concerns. 2. Latent concerns that may increase or decrease in priority or entirely change in nature as they develop. While the trend of these concerns should be monitored, new program action does not appear necessary at this time. (ERA citation 04:052564)