Energy Transition Strategies: A Progress Report

摘要

Energy Transition Strategies is an EPRI project that has examined different aspects of the long-term problem of transition from scarce to abundant energy resources. This report presents three papers that were produced as part of that project. The first paper, A Decision Analysis of the US Breeder Reactor Program by Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels, applies the ETA-MACRO model to the debate over breeder R and D strategy. The second paper, Alternative Models of Energy Demand by Sergio Granville (EAPA 5:2810), examines the econometric evidence on the elasticity of substitution. The third paper, Exhaustible Resource Models: The Value of Information by Hung-po Chao, extends the Hotelling-Nordhaus exhaustible resource model by (1) allowing for a gradual shift to the backstop technology and (2) allowing for uncertainty about the cost of this backstop and the price elasticity of energy demand. The Summary of the report also abstracts four other papers produced by the project: ETA-MACRO: A Model of Energy-Economy Interactions EAPA 4:2289, The Fable of the Elephant and the Rabbit; Probability Assessments and Decision Analysis of Alternative Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and Energy Transition Strategies for the Industrialized Nations. (ERA citation 05:015906)