United Kingdom: Estimates of Future Energy/GDP Relationships

摘要

The UK economy is expected to grow in real terms, due for the most part to advances in productivity. An increase in the labor-force-participation rate as a result of more women entering the labor force - to about 65% - should just offset a decline in the workweek. The latter is a result of a preferential shift to more leisure time and will reach 33 hours. With productivity increasing, but at a declining rate, real GDP is projected at 50% above the 1976 level. Turning to a sectoral analysis, the number of households is expected to increase by 15% as more individuals choose to live alone. The historical shift from goods production to services is expected to continue, but at a slower pace; by the year 2000 service output is expected to reach 55% of GDP. In the transport sector, the historical shift toward the passenger car is expected to saturate at about 70% of total ton-miles, while the shift toward struck freight is expected to continue and reach 76% of total ton-miles. Goods production is expected to stagnate and could fall to 33% of GDP by 2000. Historically, E/GDP has fallen steadily in the United Kingdom due almost exclusively to industrial conservation (investment in new and more-efficient plant and equipment). Conservation should spread to all other sectors of the economy as a result of government policy. The E/GDP ratio is expected to fall by another 28% by the year 2000. This implies total energy consumption of 8.7 quads. (ERA citation 05:012019)