Analysis of the Potential for Gas Demand Strategies. Report on Evaluation of Existing Gas Models and Plan for Creating a Model Appropriate to the Needs of DOE/RA

摘要

The purpose of this study is to review the state-of-the-art in gas demand modeling. The focus of the study is on the validity, policy-relevance, and flexibility of models, particularly as they relate to the issue of displacing liquid fuel imports with natural gas. The selected models for review were based on appropriateness to the reduction of liquid imports; however, a secondary goal of the study is the illustration of alternative methodology and applications. The paper begins with an expanded statement of the study focus, to suggest the range of policy questions which may benefit from gas demand modeling. Following this, eleven energy-related models are briefly reviewed by laying out each model's salient features such as: assumptions, data and algorithm; the advantages and disadvantages of each model are discussed. Information from the individual model reviews is drawn together in a final section which sets forth a set of specifications for an ideal gas demand model which would be most useful to DOE/RA in formulating policy with respect to gas demand. 16 references. (ERA citation 09:033426)