A Probabilistic Evaluation of Earthquake Detection and Location Capability for Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia

摘要

Probabilistic estimations of earthquake detection and location capabilities for the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia are presented in this document. The algorithm used in these epicentrality and minimum-magnitude estimations is a version of the program NETWORTH by Wirth, Blandford, and Husted (DARPA Order No. 2551, 1978) which was modified for local array evaluation at the University of Michigan Seismological Observation. Estimations of earthquake detection capability for the years 1970 and 1980 are presented in four regional minimum m sub b magnitude contour maps. Regional 90% confidence error ellipsoids are included for m sub b magnitude envents from 2.0 through 5.0 at 0.5 m sub b unit increments. The close agreement between these predicted epicentral 90% confidence estimates and the calculated error ellipses associated with actual earthquake within the studied region suggest that these error determinations can be used to estimate the reliability of epicenter location.