Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis of US Input-Output Model. Final Report

摘要

Input-output tables have been used in a wide variety of energy analyses to examine the economic impacts of changes in demand due to changes in the cost and availability of energy. There have been several questions concerning their use in general and the applicability of these to energy issues. This report describes a simulation that is used to measure the propagation of uncertainty through input-output calculations. This research developed measures of uncertainty and probability distributions for published input values. A Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to develop the distributions of sector outputs for 30-, 90-, and 101-sector tables. (ERA citation 06:004969)