Strategic Backdrop Analysis for Fossil Fuel Planning. Task 2 Report (New Task Series), The Base Case. Report 473-117-08/01

摘要

This report describes a base case analysis performed using the strategic backdrop analytical framework developed by The Futures Group to facilitate fossil fuel planning within the Department of Energy. It builds upon the data base compiled in the default case previously submitted but uses a different set of energy technology assumptions. Objectives of the strategic backdrop analysis project are: (1) to delineate alternative socioeconomic futures or target worlds for the United States and to derive, for each world, the amount of energy needed to sustain its level of economic activity and lifestyle, assuming no technological changes; (2) to construct an analytical framework that accounts for the flow of energy from the disaggregated end-use target demand sectors back through the distribution and conversion processes to primary resource requirements; (3) to use this framework 1) to analyze how alternative government policies and associated new technologies can change the primary resource needs and fuel mix while still providing the same level of end-use energy service for the target world, and 2) to highlight resource constraints, program inconsistencies, and economic, environmental, and social implications; (4) to transfer to DOE personnel the methodology for generating energy targets and accounting for important characteristics of alternative energy policies and technologies. (ERA citation 06:002461)