Labor Market Projections Model: Updating Census with Current Population Survey Data at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

摘要

The Labor Market Projection Model (LMPM) was started in the summer of 1975 to provide local CETA planners with current local estimates of persons in need of manpower services. The geographic levels of LMPM include states, SMSAs', prime sponsors and other special jurisdictions. During the course of project development, two independent efforts have been undertaken at LBL. The first effort produces short-term projections of population, labor force, and unemployment by sex, race, and age for each area. The population projection is based on a refined cohort-component method and integrates data on mortality, fertility, and net migration. Submodels are developed to handle the military and college-student populations. The second effort updates selected socio-economic characteristics available at the local level in certain tabulations of the 1970 Fourth Count Census by using data from the March Current Population Survey (CPS) for 1970 and the current year. The actual updating is done using proportions based upon current year and 1970 CPS values for the selected socio-economic characteristics. The updating methodology is detailed in Section 2. Future directions of the updating procedure is presented in Section 3. (ERA citation 05:033674)