Analysis of the Need for Intermediate and Peaking Technologies in the Year 2000

摘要

This analysis was conducted to assess the impact of load management on the future need for intermediate- and peak-generating technologies (IPTs) such as combustion turbines, pumped storage, and cycling coal plants. There will be a reduced need for IPTs if load-management activities such as time-of-use pricing, together with customer-owned energy-storage devices, hot-water-heater controls, and interruptible service, can economically remove most of the variation from electric-power demands. Therefore, the analysis assesses the need for IPTs in an uncertain future, which will probably include load management and time-differentiated electricity prices. Section 2 provides a condensed description of the models used in the analysis. (Details and data sets are contained in the appendixes.) Results of sensitivities on growth rates, model parameters, and appliance saturations are discussed in Section 3, which also contains the analysis of the potential impacts of customer energy storage, appliance control, and time-of-use pricing. The future need for intermediate and peaking technologies is analyzed in Section 4. (ERA citation 05:038243)