Impact of 1980 Scheduled Capacity Additions on Electric-Utility Oil Consumption

摘要

The electric-utility sector currently consumes approximately 8% of the total oil used in the Nation. This oil represented about 15% of total fuel consumed by electric utilities in 1979. Two important factors that affect the level of utility oil consumption in 1980 are the substantial increase in coal-fired generating capacity and the uncertainty surrounding nuclear-plant licensing. With particular emphasis on these considerations, this report analyzes the potential for changes in electric-utility oil consumption in 1980 relative to the 1979 level. Plant conversions, oil to coal, for example, that may occur in 1980 are not considered in this analysis. Only the potential reduction in oil consumption resulting from new generating-capacity additions is analyzed. Changes in electric-utility oil consumption depend on, among other factors, regional-electricity-demand growth and generating-plant mix. Five cases are presented using various electricity-demand-growth rate assumptions, fuel-displacement strategies, and nuclear-plant-licensing assumptions. In general, it is likely that there will be a reduction in electric-utility oil consumption in 1980. Using the two reference cases of the report, this reduction is projected to amount to a 2 to 5% decrease from the 1979 oil-consumption level; 7% reduction is the largest reduction projected. (ERA citation 05:038241)