Development of Demand Models for Energy Use in the Commercial Sector at the State Level. CRA Report No. 431

摘要

State-level models of commercial sector energy demand are presented. In addition to forecasting the effects on demand of commercial activity and energy prices, the model is capable of analyzing the effects of a wide range of energy conservation policies. This model structure is described in Chapter 1. Individual tasks required in the implementation at the state level are described in the second chapter. The third chapter presents baseline forecasts of the state-level model. An evaluation of forecasting accuracy is presented for ten states: one in each federal region. The state-level forecasts (see appendix) use 1970 as a base year; therefore, our fuel use estimates for the 1971 to 1977 period are compared to DOE data covering the same years as a form of model validation. Use of the model in analyzing energy conservation policies is discussed. The effects of major provisions of the National Energy Act on a sample state's (Pennsylvania) energy use are forecast both individually and in combination in order to demonstrate the CEDM's use for policy analysis. (ERA citation 08:005275)