Resource and Cost Estimating Relationships for Use in the Development of the 1981 Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Production Goals. Final Report

摘要

In June 1979 the Leasing Policy Development Office (LPDO) published oil and natural gas production goals for the federal offshore in Federal Leasing and Outer Continental Shelf Energy Production Goals (DOE/RA-0037). To generate those production goals, a generalized resource leasing model (GEN2) was designed and constructed. This report serves as documentation of the technical support provided by ICF Incorporated in both updating and refining the input data for LPDO's 1981 analysis. The effort focused on the development of accurate functional relationships between: (1) leased acreage and expected hydrocarbon discoveries; and (2) reservoir size, installed capacity, water depth, and the costs of OCS exploration, development, production and transportation. The effort described in this report concentrated on the construction of valid resource and cost relationships using available data concerning historical activity and cost indices in the Gulf of Mexico. As such, their utility for future resource and cost estimation is restricted necessarily to the Gulf alone. However, these relationships for the Gulf of Mexico are believed to suggest the correct behavior of the same relationships for other OCS planning areas (the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the Alaskan offshore), through the use of appropriate scaling factors which adjust the level of the costs and resources. This report suggests scaling factors for the Alaskan offshore, the OCS planning area thought to be most important to the 1981 LPDO mission. (ERA citation 11:026920)