Evaluation of the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program Used for the 1978 EIA Administrator's Report to Congress

摘要

An evaluation of the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP), a computer model of the energy portion of the US economy that was used for the 1995-2020 projections in its 1978 Annual Report to Congress, is presented. An overview of the 1978 version, LEAP Model 22C, is followed by an analysis of the important results needed by its users. The model is then evaluated on the basis of: (1) the adequacy of its documentation; (2) the local experience in operating the model; (3) the adequacy of the numerical techniques used; (4) the soundness of the economic and technical foundations of the model equations; and (5) the degree to which the computer program has been verified. To show which parameters strongly influence the results and to approach the question of whether the model can project important results with sufficient accuracy to support qualitative conclusions, the numerical sensitivities of some important results to model input parameters are described. The input data are categorized and discussed, and uncertainties are given for some parameters as examples. From this background and from the relation of LEAP to other available approaches for long-term energy modeling, an overall evaluation is given of the model's suitability for use by the EIA.