The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

摘要

While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.