New Mexico Coal Market Study: An Economic Analysis of the Competitive Position of New Mexico Coal in Western Coal Markets. Module I, Volume I

摘要

The purpose of this study is to provide an analysis of the long-run market potential for New Mexico coal. The study is intended to provide a general analysis of the markets and consumers of New Mexico coal. In addition, the report includes analyses of policy and legal issues which might have a bearing on the development of the state's coal industry. Finally, specific recommendations for future areas of research and analysis are provided. Based on our analysis using the DRI Coal Model, DRI predicts that the demand for New Mexico coal will increase from the current 18 to 19 million tons to 29.5 million tons in 1990 and to 73.4 million tons in 2000. More than 90% of this coal will come from the San Juan Basin, with the remainder coming from the Raton Basin. The primary markets for this coal will be located in the states of New Mexico and Arizona, with lesser amounts going to Texas and California. Even when assuming lower transportation rates, the markets do not extend beyond the West South Central region. The predicted use of coal outside of the local area is sensitive to further plant slippages and to competition from coals from other regions, notably the Powder River Basin and Utah. Although considerable growth in the demand for New Mexico coal is predicted, it will not be sufficient to absorb all of the coal which potentially would be made available if all of the mines along the proposed Star Lake Railroad were built as presently scheduled. In fact, it would be sometime after 1995 before all of the capacity would be fully utilized. Even if the market demand does materialize as predicted, there are considerable institutional, environmental, and legal barriers which could keep New Mexico coals from meeting their full potential. (ERA citation 10:001839)