Statistical Analysis of What Drives Industrial Energy Demand: Volume III of the PURHAPS Model Documentation

摘要

The overall price of energy has far less direct effect on industrial demand than conventional models, such as the Jorgenson translog model, have indicated. Much of what appears to be conservation in recent years can be explained as the result of structural changes (e.g., less steel production), electrification, and a slowdown in the long-term trend towards more use of energy relative to other factors of production. This report documents these findings and the other findings from the statistical analysis used in developing the PURchased Heat And Power System, as used in producing the 1982 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts. This report is intended partly to convey these findings to substantive energy experts and energy policy analysts; it is also intended to fulfill EIA requirements for model documentation. Volume I of this series documents the full mathematical specification of the model, including accounting identites and benchmarks; Volume II documents the data used both in the estimation and in the model. Appendix B of this report provides a purely historical breakdown of actual changes in oil and electricity use from 1974 to 1981, showing what changes are due to general economic growth, improved general productivity, etc. preliminary work for the 1983 Annual Energy Outlook is discussed in general terms. (ERA citation 09:014027)