Procedures for Using Expert Judgment to Estimate Human Error Probabilities in Nuclear Power Plant Operations.

摘要

This report describes and evaluates several procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. These HEPs are currently needed for several purposes, particularly for probabilistic risk assessments. Five judgmental procedures are described here: paired comparisons, ranking and rating, direct numerical estimation, indirect numerical estimation and multi-attribute utility measurement. These procedures are evaluated in terms of several criteria: quality of judgments, difficulty of data collection, empirical support, acceptability, theoretical justification, and data processing. Situational constraints such as the number of experts available, the number of HEPs to be estimated, the time available, the location of the experts, and the resources available are discussed in regard to their implications for selecting a procedure for use. Details for implementing the procedures and necessary calculations are included in appendices.