Overall Study Methodology. Industrial Energy Productivity Project. Final Report

摘要

Documentation of the seven main components of this study is presented in a sequence that parallels the steps of the model logic. The sequence starts with discussions of the approach used to develop two macroeconomic-level primary inputs for the study: projections of industrial output growth rates by industry type and geographic region, and average delivered energy prices by fuel type and region. An illustration is presented of how industry-wide growth projections are translated into process-specific material flow for the four intensively-studied industries (pulp and paper, petroleum refining, iron and steel, and chemicals) using material flow models. The Core of the ISTUM-2 technology competition methodology is presented at some length for process, carrier, and conservation technologies. The output of this competition is technology nominal market shares. The details are included of the mechanics of tracking the penetration of processes and technologies into the industrial sector production stocks through time by updating for each projection year stocks existing from the previous year minus retirements and plus new additions to meet growth in product demand. Energy management activities, i.e., housekeeping measures to reduce energy consumption, are defined, measured, and incorporated into the model's output. A description is included of the sources and methodology used to develop the data bases for energy consumption, production capacity, and actual production for each process represented that existed in the base year, 1976. Technology characterization data sources, definitions, and development methodology are described together with caveats and limitations of these data bases. (ERA citation 08:015251)