Probabilistic Approach to Stability Analysis. Volume 1. Mathematical Models, Computing Methods, and Results. Final Report

摘要

The objective of this project was to investigate the application of probabilistic methods for use in power system analysis and to develop preliminary computer methods for evaluation and testing. Power system stability has traditionally been evaluated using deterministic techniques. In this method of analysis the engineer selects a particular location on the network where he places a predetermined disturbance. The disturbance is programmed to exist for a given time, usually a few cycles, and the stability program solves the system response to this particular upset. The results transient behavior will permit the engineer to determine stability or instability, but gives no information regarding the likelihood of this result. Thus, any evaluation that involves a large expenditure to prevent this given instability must be tempered by judgement regarding its probability of occurrence. This project provides a means of evaluating both the stability and its probability of occurrence. There are many problems in this step into probabilistic evaluation. One must first develop a method of describing the disturbance events (fault location, type, and duration) probabilistically, and do so within the bounds of a mathematically, rigorous framework. This has been accomplished. The second useful result that has been obtained is a probabilistic description of the power system relaying system and its performance. Finally, solution methods are presented whereby disturbances can be generated probabilistically and the probability of stability determined. The subject approached in this work is difficult and much remains to be done to provide a complete working simulation. The preliminary results, however, are encouraging. (ERA citation 08:020612)