BUILD (Baseload Utility Integrated Location Decisions): A Model of the Future Spatial Distribution of Electric Power Production

摘要

This report describes the problem of estimating the future locations of electricity generation, the shortcomings of existing approaches to the problem, and a new modeling system, BUILD (Baseload Utility Integrated Location Decisions) designed to overcome these shortcomings. BUILD consists of two stages. BUILD-1, which is operational, is a linear programming model of electricity generation and transmission decisions using the 300 utilities and 4000 baseload generating units that produce most of the electricity in the United States. It is designed to estimate location patterns of generation during the next 20 years or so. BUILD-1 allows each utility to meet its service area's exogenously specified demand for baseload electric energy by trading off decisions to retire or convert existing units, delay planned construction, undertake new construction, and purchase electricity. Each utility is assumed to have a limited ability to raise capital for new construction, for fuel switching, and for conforming with regulations. The second stage, BUILD-2, is only a concept at present. BUILD-2 would select county-level (or finer) locations for the new generating capacity projected by BUILD-1. The use of utility- and plant-specific information allows substantial geographic detail in BUILD-1 even without BUILD-2, however. The report presents sample results from BUILD-1, using preliminary data, to illustrate the types of information used and provided by the model. The report also describes how, using additional data and in some cases extensions of the model structure, BUILD-1 can help analyze a number of problems posed by current trends in the industry and by possible changes in regulations. (ERA citation 08:040627)