Applied General Equilibrium Modelling for Longterm Energy Policy in the Federal Republic of Germany

摘要

The energy model is based on an extension of applied general equilibrium models of the Leontief's input-output type, first implemented by Hudson and Jorgenson. One objective of the project is to choose specifications of sectoral production and cost functions which permit to estimate the unknown parameters of the price functions and input demand functions from a single input-output table in 10 energy and 35 non-energy industries. The second objective is to determine the price for capital and labor as well as the components of final demand endogeneously instead of using a separate growth model as an engine of the economic development. The third objective is to combine the concept of price dependent substitution within the input structure with the concept of vintage coefficients for the latest plants. By this is incorporated into the input-output analysis the effect on growth as a result of investment, the effect on capacity as a result of new plants, and the effect on prices as a result of new technologies. An application of the model shows the longterm impact on growth and prices under alternative technologies in the electricity industry (nuclear or coal-fired power plants). (ERA citation 12:039032)