Lake Michigan Eutrophication Model: Calibration, Sensitivity, and Five-Year Hindcast Analysis

摘要

A dynamic, deterministic, eutrophication model of Lake Michigan that was developed by Rodgers and Salisbury (1981) and installed at Argonne National Laboratotry as part of Interagency Agreement AD-89 F-0-145-0 is described in this report. The focus is on model formulation, calibration and verification, and the relationship between these processes and the available field data. Field data are too sparse for detailed analysis, but the model does produce a reasonable five-year simulation of several water quality variables, including total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a. The model provides a valuable framework for understanding the nutrient cycle in Lake Michigan, but forecasts made using the model must be considered within the context of model limitations. 20 references, 37 figures, 7 tables. (ERA citation 10:001194)