Estimating Impact of Changing Energy Scenarios on New Energy Systems: A Case Example of District Heating Cogeneration Systems

摘要

The impact of the changing energy scenario on new district heating cogeneration systems was analyzed recently. The methodology consists of developing an econometric and stochastic simulation model that analyzes the technical and economic factors affecting the potential market penetration of a new energy system. To obtain consistent macroeconomic and energy scenarios, the market model can be linked with suitable driver models. In the case example, the model for district heating cogeneration energy systems was linked to models of US economy and US energy. The results show that the forecasts of lower energy prices reduce the potential market penetration of district heating cogeneration systems significantly from the earlier projected levels that were based on forecast energy prices in 1981. The methodology used in this study is easily adapted to investigations of other energy systems in a wide range of changing energy scenarios. (ERA citation 09:040276)