Projected World Market for Seawater Desalination Equipment

摘要

A forecast is presented of the market for seawater desalination plants. The conclusions presented herein are based on a number of sources of information, of which the most important are: responses to questionnaires mailed to 300 cognizant water agencies in 61 countries; the published market growth trend over the period 1971 to 1983; and an analysis of the geography, rainfall, population, industrial growth, and energy availability in the respective countries. Analysis suggests the possibility that financing, although currently a major stumbling block to the purchase of desalting plants, may be effected by an exchange program in which the purchaser of plants will offer some exportable product(s) in exchange. The forecast suggests the likelihood that the seawater desalination market is becoming saturated. A plateau is expected to develop in new plant sales of additional capacity in the immediate future, followed by a downturn by the end of the century. This report, however, emphasizes the importance of the replacement market, which will involve substantial sales to replace worn-out and obsolescent equipment. The combined new-plus-replacement annual sales can be expected to reach 1.25 million m exp 3 /d (330 Mgd) by the year 2000. Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) is expected to represent 270,000 m exp 3 /d (70 Mgd) by the end of the century because of technological improvements in membrane systems and components. (ERA citation 10:000975)