Detroit Edison Company. Financial Impacts on Utilities of Load Shape Changes Project: Stage I Technical Report

摘要

History has shown that the responses of investor-owned electric utilities to proposals for residential energy conservation have been very different depending on the immediate generating and financial circumstances of each company. The long range goal of this Project is to build a model of the electricity industry that can anticipate the financial implications to individual companies of various energy policies. Three electric utilities were chosen subjects whose reserve margins and financial circumstances are quite different: the Detroit Edison Company (DECO), Pacific Gas and Electric (PG and E), and Virginia Electric Power Company (VEPCO). This report describes the attempt to model DECO and outlines the financial modelling results. The intention was to derive a rough estimate of profit increases or decreases that DECO might experience resulting from some hypothetical conservation policy scenarios. The forecast of sales and loads was generated by the LBL Energy and Peak Load Models calibrated to recent DECO history. Four cases were run: a base (BS) case and three policy initiatives. The first initiative simulates the introduction of DOE Consumer Product Efficiency Standards in 1987. The second has the DOE introduce a standard for cooling appliances only, in the same year. The final case constrained all new, post-1977 central electric heating to be heatpumps in such a way that the ownership of heatpumps matched the known saturation for 1982. (ERA citation 11:027532)