Transportation Sector Market Transition: Using History and Geography to Envision Possible Hydrogen Infrastructure Development and Inform Public Policy

摘要

This report provides a set of answers to the following questions regarding the future of hydrogen as a transportation fuel. The answers were determined by using the development of different scenarios run in the HyDS Modeling Environment (HyDS-ME), which is a geographically based supply and demand infrastructure model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory between 2004 and 2006. The questions addressed are: Which technologies will be used to provide hydrogen during the deployment. What external influences and policies enable technologies to come online sooner. What synergies are there between cities and their distance to markets. How important and costly is it to serve rural areas. How can cities leverage one anothers demand, thereby reducing cost and risk of stranded investments. In order to answer the questions holistically and to attempt to gain further insights into the hydrogen infrastructure development, the all-encompassing question is: What are the impacts of different early infrastructure development scenarios. This report contains results of geographically rendered lower-cost, higher-impact early transition scenarios for developing hydrogen infrastructures using the HyDS-ME. Market and geographically targeted end-game scenarios for transition are designed based on historical transportation-sector transition trends, combined with current infrastructure scenarios developed for hydrogen by other researchers to identify scenarios likely to lead to nationwide infrastructure development.