Fuel Price Projections by End-Use Sector for Illinois. Revision

摘要

This paper illustrates the results of an alternative approach for generating fuel price projections at the regional and state level based on national projections. This approach is flexible, adaptive, straightforward and transparent. Moreover, it employs a systematic method for generating a consistent set of projected energy prices through the use of available data. Conceptually, the method entails linking spatial price trends inherent in historic data with projected patterns in aggregate energy prices. This methodology has been incorporated into a modeling system called AREPS, the Argonne Regional Energy Price Simulator. The remainder of this paper addresses the use of AREPS to produce projections for the State of Illinois. (ERA citation 11:032026)