Simple Model of the Greenhouse Effect

摘要

This report describes a simple model that breaks new ground by attempting to encompass the whole cause and effect of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of carbon dioxide. The model includes a carbon dioxide emissions module, a carbon cycle module, and an atmospheric temperature module. Each of the component modules is considerably less elaborate than the current state-of-the-art modules. In addition to the three modules, the simple model simulates the impact of climate change on the production of food and simulates the impact of both expensive food and expensive energy on world GNP. The report presents the detailed equations of the model and sample results. A key assumption is that the world GNP will increase by about a factor of 12 in the next 200 years (an average rate of about 1% per year). If the world GNP increases at this rate, by 2000 the world must begin a major shift to solar energy or nuclear power if the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is to be kept below 600 ppM. 19 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs. (ERA citation 10:034699)